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Ohio, Texas to decide Clinton campaign Tues.

By: Charles Brace /The Daily Cardinal  - March 3, 2008




20080303_news_clinton_story
By: Christopher Guess /The Daily Cardinal
U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., campaigns in Texas. Primaries in Ohio and Texas could determine if Clinton stays in the race.

The presidential campaign of U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., might be decided by primaries in the delegate-rich states of Ohio and Texas Tuesday.

However, the Wisconsin primary’s trends could show how the upcoming contests will be determined.

Ohio, like Wisconsin, has mostly white voters. Around 85 percent of voters are white in both states, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., won among white men in Wisconsin, with Clinton and Obama tied for support among white women, according to CNN exit polls.

Wisconsin has almost twice as many voters aged 65 and older than Ohio, a demographic that voted for Clinton over Obama by 58 to 41 percent.

Texas’ population is 35 percent Hispanic and Latino, and polls show Clinton being supported by Latino voters more than Obama in states like Wisconsin and Nevada.

Yet, Obama increased his level of support in Wisconsin among voting blocs that had previously supported Clinton, including those without a college education and women.

Byron Shafer, Hawkins Chair of political science at UW-Madison, said in an e-mail that trends shown in the Wisconsin primary could play out in the upcoming states.

Shafer said Obama increased support from groups that previously favored Clinton as he pulled ahead in the race.

“Obama has done so well in a few groups that he cannot really add additional support with them,” Shafer said.

If Clinton wins Ohio and Texas, according to Shafer, both candidates will likely continue to the next decisive state, Pennsylvania. He said if Obama wins both states Tuesday, Clinton would probably withdraw from the race.




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